Monte Carlo Method for Determining Earthquake Recurrence Parameters from Short Paleoseismic Catalogs - Example Calculations for California: Usgs Open-

Monte Carlo Method for Determining Earthquake Recurrence Parameters from Short Paleoseismic Catalogs - Example Calculations for California: Usgs Open-

Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function () for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the using standard maximum-likelihood techniques [e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999]. In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes..